Is Donald Trump one of those “world historical individuals” who usher in a new stage of history that is more or less inevitable? That seems to be the message of an essay posted by NOTUS.com three days ago: “Trump as Alexander the Great: A Theory That Explains Iran (And Everything Else)” by John B. Judis.
This idea–while not new–can be hard for us to swallow. After all, our belief in change driven by the people motivates all that we do.
A thoughtful and insightful long form essay was published in NOTUS this week. It is a deep dive on the 19th century German philosopher G.W.F. Hegel’s theory of history. We’ve done our best to summarize the key points :
Rising Democratic optimism:
- Recent Democratic wins in state races (e.g., New Jersey, Virginia) and stronger-than-expected showings in conservative areas have boosted confidence.
- Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and unpopular policies (like the war in Iran and rising gas prices) make Democrats think they could retake the House in 2026 and possibly the White House in 2028.
But the article argues Democrats are missing the bigger picture:
- Even if Trump loses power or becomes unpopular, the structural changes he triggered may last decades.
- The author claims Trump is reshaping global politics and U.S. institutions in ways that may be irreversible.
Philosophical lens: Hegel’s “world-historical individuals”:
- Drawing on philosopher G.W.F. Hegel, history moves through major stages driven by disruptive figures.
- Such figures (like Napoleon Bonaparte or Julius Caesar) accelerate historical transitions, often without fully understanding the consequences.
- The author argues Donald Trump fits this pattern.
Collapse of the old global consensus:
- For decades, global politics relied on free trade (“neoliberalism”) and liberal internationalism.
- Institutions like World Trade Organization, United Nations, and NATO embodied that system.
- Failures such as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the Great Recession, immigration crises, and China’s rise undermined trust in that order.
Trump’s role in dismantling that system:
- Policies include global tariffs, reduced reliance on alliances, immigration crackdowns, and unilateral military actions.
- These moves challenge the post-World War II international order and weaken global institutions.
Long-term global consequences predicted:
- More protectionist trade and regional economic blocs.
- Weaker alliances and declining trust in U.S. commitments.
- Potential great-power rivalry similar to the pre-World War I era.
- More countries may seek nuclear weapons if they no longer trust U.S. security guarantees.
- The U.S. dollar’s dominance could even be threatened.
Trump’s overreach may backfire:
- Like historical figures such as Alexander the Great and Napoleon Bonaparte, world-changing leaders often push too far and face unintended consequences.
- The result may be a weaker U.S. and a stronger China, even if that was never Trump’s goal.
Bottom line:
- Even if Democrats win future elections, the world order Trump disrupted may not return.
- Future presidents will likely inherit a fragmented global economy, damaged alliances, and a more unstable geopolitical environment.
For our first editorial roundtable, a few Oregon Indivisibles respond to this point of view.
Jenny Pompilio, MD, MPH
Indivisible Cedar Mill / Portland
The article kept saying we can’t reverse what Trump has done/is doing. That implies we (minorities, LGBTQ+, women) want to go back. None of the cited “world-historical individuals” identified as a woman or a minority that I am aware of?
Trump represents an abscess that has festered for hundreds of years in the USA. It appears to have finally ruptured. In doing so, it will either kill the far-from-perfect democracy our elders and ancestors have been working on over the last 150+ years, or we will rise up to heal and create a new future. Indeed, many of us do not want to go back, we want to build a new future that respects the health of every human being and Mother Earth.
Bobby Sample
COIN Comms Team & Dunes City Indivisible / Florence
Responding to Dr. Pompilio
So I hear you saying that healing from great harms can usher in new eras of improvement. E.g. If the American colonists weren’t unfairly taxed without a say in George III’s government, they would never have revolted. Once free of the mad king (here’s hoping for parallels!) the Founding Fathers pushed to get a better system in writing. They definitely rose up to heal and create a better future.
Their system left minorities and women behind and still hasn’t made up for it, but at least it allowed a means to do so if its ideals are taken seriously. Does all that “we the people” language make this system sufficiently different from the fallen empires of the past? I worry about how so much of that same language about the primacy of common people also props up the populists and sooner or later, the fascists.
I prefer to be optimistic nonetheless! Our chosen system really should make that difference and an engaged population can make it do so. Past populations throughout history lacked our tools of engagement.
Peter Bergel
Salem Regional Indivisible, Indivisible One Million Rising, The PeaceWorker (Founder/Editor) / Salem
- The author is right that post-Trump, things are unlikely to “go back to normal.”
- He is probably also right that Trump is what he called a “world-historical individual.”
- According to activist-author-trainer George Lakey: the greatest progressive changes have historically come from the periods of greatest polarization. That suggests that it’s possible that we can create a much more progressive US – and maybe even world – when Trump is gone from the scene.
- The US is probably done as the world’s leader. A much more multi-lateral global power structure will be likely to emerge.
- If our progressive movement stays active and does not disappear after its first few victories, magnificent vistas in which domination is replaced with true democracy (not the kind the US has been peddling abroad) may unfold.
- The national Democratic Party leadership is bankrupt and must be replaced with representatives that understand the people they are purporting to represent. Electoral victories that merely put that party in power again over the next few years will not be sufficient to truly make our country great.
Susan W.
COIN Leadership Team, Comms Team, & Dunes City Indivisible / Florence
Although I did, indeed, find this to be insightful (and long!) I have to take some exception to the author’s outcome assumptions. First off, I understand and appreciate that history does, in fact, often repeat itself. That said, the world historical figures referenced, e.g. Alexander the Great, Napoleon Bonaparte, Julius Caesar, and so on, all lived in a very different social context.
The bane of current technology and social media has, in my opinion, changed everything. At no other time in history have we been able to instantaneously reach and communicate to nearly every person on this planet (except places like Iran where very few have access to communication tools like Zoom.) Our ability to see real time what is happening in the world and connect and organize is by far historically unparalleled.
Some would say that the diminution of free the press will also be part of our undoing. Although I don’t like it (I actually despise it), streaming and the many outlets like Blue Sky give even hacks like me a platform to consume, debate, and disagree.
I tend to agree more with Simon Tisdall, foreign affairs columnist for The Guardian: “Time will show the Trump era to be less turning point, more freakish aberration… In history’s bigger picture, Trump is a blotch, an unsightly smear on the canvas.”
But full disclosure. I am an incurable optimist, which keeps getting me jumping out of bed each day to keep trying and not succumb to the fatalistic idea that democracy is done and over with. True, democracy will, and needs to, evolve. And hopefully as they say, this time in our humanity “does not kill us, (and) makes us stronger.”
Tim Bailey
COIN Leadership Team & Indivisible Cedar Mill / Portland
Oh, this is getting interesting…
Unpacking and layering in the complexity for this would require a bit more academic rigor than email affords.
History does not repeat itself. What threads it is power & control. It is the establishment of “systems/institutions” (political, economic, legal, cultural, religious, etc.) that support the dominant group and subject (oppress) the rest.
The historic “struggle” for liberation is freedom from oppression, of which there are three major oppressions: classism, racism, sexism; and seven supporting: heterosexism, anti-semitism, anti-Muslim, ableism, adultism, ageism, nationalism.
The wealthy, white, men lovingly called our “Founding Forefathers” were interested in more than the King’s taxes. George Washington specifically wanted Kentucky land for his slaves, but the King forbid it (he reserved it for the indigenous peoples). Washington wasn’t alone in wanting the land west of the Appalachians.
The tax issue was a good pretext because it riled a third of the colony.
The gamble for nationhood was a lot of luck.
Healing was not a part of their calculus, better fortunes were. The new nation’s charter (plagiarized from the pop-philosopher John Locke) was meant for white (racist), property owning (classist), men (sexist). Any textualist in the Supreme Court would recognize this fact (sans the isms).
The aspirational words bandied about are empty without an informed framework on power & control to embody them.
Too many meta-narratives needed to round this out…
If you would like to contribute to Our Voices in future installments, let us know!
Photo inset: Alexander Mosaic (detail), House of the Faun, Pompeii